3 Artículos sobre evaluación y microsimulación del impacto de la implantación de prestación universal por hijos (PUH) en España

 

Ayala Luis , Canto Olga , Petrov Dmitry , Romaguera de la Cruz Marina. Fighting Child Poverty in Spain by Moving Towards European Standards: A Microsimulation-Based Case Study, 2026. Vol. 2. 1-26 p. https://doi.org/10.4995/jpeval.2026.25696 

Poverty in Spain is widespread among children, and its incidence has recently shown a strong upward trend. The aim of this paper is twofold: to assess the impact of the Spanish tax and benefit system on current child poverty rates and, in that context, to simulate the potential distributive consequences of implementing a variety of family transfer schemes using an EU-wide static microsimulation tool (EUROMOD). We simulate and study the effects of choosing different policies: a redesign of the current means-tested child benefit in terms of amount and age distribution, a reform of the existing income tax relief making it refundable and the addition of a taxable Universal Child Benefit (UCB) to the system. Our results indicate that several of the proposed reforms could generate substantial reductions in child poverty. (Texto del artículo)

Descargar publicación (Documento Adobe Acrobat [.pdf] 6.1 MB)

Gorjón, L.  Romero, G. y Lizarraga, I. Universal Child Benefits as a Tool for Poverty Reduction: A Microsimulation-Based Case Study of Spain. Journal of Policy Evaluation, 2026. 

In the context of Spain’s persistently high child poverty rate, this chapter uses microsimulation to assess the impact of implementing a Universal Child Benefit (UCB). Simulating monthly benefits of €100 and €200 per child, the analysis finds the more generous scenario would reduce the child at-risk-of-poverty rate by nearly 28% and the extreme poverty rate by 43%. The impact is most pronounced for vulnerable households, such as single-parent and large families, and also significantly reduces poverty intensity. The study estimates the gross  fiscal cost at 0.8–1.6% of Gross Domestic Product and concludes that a UCB would be an effective foundational policy for Spain, offering a relevant model for other countries seeking to strengthen their social protection systems. (Texto del artículo)

Descargar publicación (Documento Adobe Acrobat [.pdf] 540 KB)

Gorjón, Lucía y Romero, Gonzalo. El impacto de la prestación universal por crianza en la reducción de la pobreza en España: un ejercicio de microsimulación. ISEAK Centro de Investigación y Transferencia, 2024. 1-15 p.

La prestación universal por crianza está cada vez más presente en el debate público. España, que tiene unos altos niveles estructurales de pobreza y desigualdad, carece de una prestación de este tipo, lo que la convierte en una anomalía entre los países del entorno. Este documento muestra los resultados de dos ejercicios de microsimulación que miden el impacto de la implantación de una prestación universal por crianza en los niveles de pobreza en España. En concreto, se plantean dos escenarios en los que el importe de la prestación es de 100 y 200 euros mensuales por menor a cargo. (Texto del artículo)

Descargar publicación (Documento Adobe Acrobat [.pdf] 2.58 MB)